#59 - Josh Mueller & Charly Cummings, Calf Marketing Decisions

Josh Mueller and Charly Cummings both work with Superior Livestock Auction.

Josh and his wife, Macey, also operate Eldorado Livestock Auction, plus farm and ranch with their family near Halstead, KS.

Charly is an auctioneer, real estate agent, and partners on his family's diversified hay and livestock operation near Yates Center, KS.

On this episode, we cover decisions that producers should consider when they decide how best to merchandise their calves and yearlings this fall. We cover some market trends and even get into the need for producers to join their industry organizations to help make better decisions and represent all producers.

El Dorado Livestock Auction, Inc.
Superior Livestock Auction – The leader in Livestock Marketing

Transcript

Matt: 0:05

Thanks for joining us for episode 59 of practically ranching. I'm your host, Matt Perrier. As always the podcast is sponsored by Dalebnks Angus, Eureka, Kansas... the home of practical, profitable genetics. For those of you keeping close tabs, we are a week late for this, our last episode of season four. Between a guest cancellation earlier in the month, wheat harvest, cover crop planning, updates to our bull development yard, hay season... I just flat couldn't get it done the last week or two. But I'm hopefully making up for it with this, an in-person episode with two of my friends and industry partners. Mr. Josh Mueller and Mr. Charly Cummings. I let these guys introduce themselves right off the bat. So I'm not going to steal their thunder. But in short, they both work with superior livestock. Plus Josh operates Eldorado livestock auction. And Charly is of course, an auctioneer and real estate agent. To me, they're both unique in that, although they are heavily involved with superior, they also work with more conventional livestock marketing and even seedstock marketing in Charlie's case. And as our customers know, Charlie now sells are bull sale, plus, he helps us on a number of fronts when it comes to helping market and merchandise, both our and our customers cattle. In addition, both he and Josh have countless side gigs in the farm and ranch production side of things. So when it came time to put an episode together on today's topic, calf marketing. It was fitting to bring these two guys who each live 30 miles in either direction from my place over to our bull marketing facility and sit down for a fun in-person conversation. Since we had Charlie, we also got his professional mikes and soundboard, which are a significant step up from my normal equipment. Unfortunately. Um, yours truly didn't know how to use his mic correctly, so I may sound a little distant, but you'll be able to hear the other two guys clearly. And they're the important ones anyways. So it's a better deal for everybody. We'll talk about it toward the end of the episode, but in addition to Josh and Charlie's wide array of involvement and their insight into the marketing and really all segments of the industry. I appreciate these guys' willingness to be involved in leadership and to stand up and be counted when it comes time to take some stands on some issues, you know? These days it's, it's not always easy and it's rarely popular to give of our time, back to our industry and check off or Cattleman's association leadership positions. But these guys do that here. Many in the marketing segment are fairly hesitant to do that, and for good reason, they need everybody to like them and want to do business with them. But these guys have a good vision, I think, for where our industry's headed. They're willing to consider the steps we need producers to take in order to be profitable along that path. And they, aren't afraid to let us know what they believe and, um, ways that they think can help us get there. So I appreciate you tuning in. God, bless each and every one of you and enjoy this conversation with Josh Mueller and Charlie Cummings. Well, this one could be a lot of fun or a complete disaster. I'm not sure which because for the first time in Practically Ranching history, we are actually Live sitting in the same room and recording a podcast. I tried this once before and it was a complete flop. So hopefully you guys will be my lucky rabbit's foot here. I have with me Charly Cummings, Yates Center, Kansas. And Josh Mueller, Halstead, Kansas. Eldorado as well. Um, And we're going to talk a little today about feeder cattle marketing, calf marketing. I don't think that anybody needs, Much of an introduction for these two guys, but I am, for the first time, I am breaking my rule that I've told folks that I wasn't going to recycle guests. And I guess after two years, almost two years of the day, Charlie, you're coming back around. So I'll let you go first and then we'll turn over to Josh. What have you been up to?

Charly: 4:39

Well, thanks so much for, uh, yeah, the invite back. And, uh, it's truly an honor to be on the podcast and, uh, uh, I've thrown your podcast at many, many listeners and, uh, that is, it's absolutely awesome. And for those of you listening for the first time, catch up because a lot of, a lot of great episodes. So I live over at Yates Center, It's just about 30 miles from here. find myself, uh, on a daily. Task of taking care of cattle and ranching is what's deep rooted in my heart, and that's what I love to do. But, uh, also, most people probably know me as an auctioneer. And, uh, so, in 2011, won the World Livestock Auctioneering Contest, and, uh, went to work for Superior Livestock, and, uh, since then have, uh, been an auctioneer. Been fortunate enough to find my way and path into the real estate world and sell lots of real estate as well as, uh, one of the most enjoyments and probably is what's, uh, brought you and I closer as friends is, uh, the purebred world and, uh, selling lots of purebred sales and, uh, really enjoy that venue as well. I've got a great wife at home of, uh, 23 years, uh, this past week. So that's exciting. And, uh, yeah, exactly. We got, uh, Got a son that's 19 and he's went to welding school and he's home now for, uh, haying season. We, my brother puts up a pile of prairie hay, so we help with that as well. Uh, have a daughter that's going to be a sophomore in high school and, uh, she lives, sleeps and eats with a volleyball. So that's a good thing as well at that age. So I'll, uh, I'll kick it to Josh.

Josh: 6:10

Do we have any time left, Matt? Yeah. Okay. Just making sure. Along those same lines, uh, appreciate the invite. Uh, it's good to be here. I've always kind of admired what you've done here the last couple of years. And, and it's good just to be among friends here and talk shop. So I guess my history a little bit, I've been kind of all over. So, uh, Josh Mueller, once again, if, if you don't know me, Uh, originally from Halstead, Kansas. Uh, and that's where I live and, and farm and ranch with our family. Uh, be fourth generation right there where we're at. And so we're, we're proud of that. My wife, Macy, and I and, uh, four kids all together. Got Conway, he's 12. going on 17 and uh, he lives, eats, sleeps, breathes with a basketball. So he does that all summer, all winter. Um, and then we stepped down a notch and there's Raleigh who is going to be eight, um, starting to get into it a little bit, wants to be horseback all the time. And, uh, Then there's Gigi, that's, she's gonna be six in September, and if you've ever met Gigi, or ever meet her in Crossing Paths, you will not forget her. And then, uh, Coral, our youngest, she, she just turned four in March. And so a lot of little feet, hands running around, um, graduated from K state, no one, um, spent a little time in the feed yards. Um, there was, I tell this story sometimes there was always only two things I ever wanted to be growing up. And one, I told my dad when I was in eighth grade that I was going to play professional football and I wasn't going to go to college. I was just going to get drafted out of high school. We all, yeah, yeah. And, uh, and an order buyer. And, uh, I remember my dad took me sales when I was young and, and, uh, would get me out of school and we'd go to the sale barn and, uh, it was something that just. Stuck with me forever. And I just remember going to the sale and man, I'd get mad if my dad didn't buy anything. And I can remember trying to grab his hand and hold it up in the air. So, you know,

Matt: 8:36

auctioneers love guys like, yeah,

Josh: 8:38

absolutely one of those guys. Yeah, I can, uh, I can not stand to, uh, not participate in a good auction anyway. And then, so, yeah, started with superior in 2003, uh, it's a little over 20 years now already in that business and, uh, have been fairly successful there. And along with that started an order buying business about the same time. and then decided we wanted to spread our wings a little further and took over Eldorado Livestock, uh, in January of 19, it's going to be, we're five and a half years now at ELA. So, you know, I feel like we, we are all things cattle. We, we farm and ranch some at home, but, uh, pretty much involved in, in every aspect, uh, of the industry outside of, you don't do a whole lot in a purebred business, but, uh, know a lot of folks, including yourself and, and, uh, We don't dip into that too much, but, uh, everything else is pretty much fair game.

Matt: 9:50

Awesome. Awesome. Well, this, uh, this conversation kind of came as a result of Charlie and I on a little road trip week and a half ago down to Oklahoma city to livestock marketing associations annual meetings, where. Each of us were on two different panels and I've gotten a couple calls from customers of ours just toeing the water trying to figure out how best to market calves, when to market calves, different programs, things like that. And I was just talking to Charlie about it and I, as you know, Seems to be the case now that I'm a big podcaster. It seems like every good conversation about halfway through, I'm like, stop, stop, stop, this is going to make a great podcast. So let's not, let's not ruin it. Um, and so as we got to talking, um, Charlie said, you know, Josh may have a little something to add on this too. And so, um, that. Coupled with the fact that it's a hundred and some degrees outside this afternoon. It wasn't that difficult to get you to sit down conditioning and do something besides video and cattle or cleaning ponds or fixing dams or whatever it else, building feed yards or whatever we three were supposed to be doing this afternoon. So I appreciate you being here. So Josh, speaking of hot. Uh, you had a little auction a week ago that I would say. Was about 112 degree heat index there to tell us about your both video and live sale you had there at Eldorado last Thursday.

Josh: 11:23

Absolutely. It's good timing, Matt. so last week we were fortunate enough, Charlie and I've been talking about for the last couple of years. I don't know what it's been eight, 10 years ago. Superior started this, uh, tall grass yearling sale to feature the Flint Hills and had it for several years in Emporia. Um, just at the, uh, pavilion there. And then I think they went to Pawhuska one year. but Charlie and I had talked about, you know, I'll just have it there at the salebarn. And, and finally. You know, explain our ideas and, and got superior to bring the sale to our place there last week. Uh, had a little over 11, 000 or right out 11, 000 cattle on superiors video, um, it mainly featuring the Flint Hills and some of the Osage country, there's a few lots from Texas and whatnot, and we're never going to turn anybody down, but, uh, featuring the Flint Hills. Had a lot of cattle that would ship anywhere from immediately to first part of August, even first of September. Uh, and it just took off from there. Um, had a phenomenal sale. I mean, selling 950 pound steers for 260. if you can fathom that or run the figures there. And then, um, to go along with it, And it just happened to be our sale day on Thursday also. So we featured a special, uh, calf and feeder sale at our barn. We had right at 2, 500 cattle at the barn. Uh, so we had lunch, transitioned over to the live sale. And never skipped a beat. We started with load lots of, of feeders. Uh, we had right around 25 loads of, of feeders, heifers and steers, uh, weighing in the sixes all the way up to over a thousand and, um,, featured a really nice consignment of home raised black steers. Uh, there was 300 in some of them. And never fell off. I think we sold two loads, weighed like 936 or something like that for 260 and a quarter, sold two loads of bigger brothers. They weighed, they weighed 1030 something, I think, for, uh, 245 or yeah, and in the calf market, I'm telling you what you, you know, and myself included. I'll just be honest. I do not like starting calves or, you know, even weaned calves in June and July with the heat and the humidity. Um, Most of the calves that we had were weaned, you know, fall calves that had been weaned 60 days plus. And it made a difference, you know, they were pretty much all on a program. But then, all the way through the entire sale, I mean, we had one set from Yates Center. Usually weans them, sells them the end of the summer. Decided, you know, with the market, I'm just gonna bring them to town. We sold a package of his heifer calves, two rounds of shots off the cow, weighed 485, bring 342. And, and that was towards the end of the sale. So yeah, it was, it was a great day. You know, obviously the market being where it's at helped, uh, but we had a really good crowd, had a nice lunch. Uh, I think it was a fun experience. I've had a lot of comments from people just in our part of the world here that had never been to a video. And even though that's kind of a small version of what Superior does, uh, they really appreciate it being there and being able to come watch. And so it was, it was a good time.

Matt: 14:55

Cool thing about it to me is, and I didn't get to go over. I was cutting wheat and planting cover crop and bailing straw and everything else. It had been a lot more fun to be over there. But, uh, the cool thing to me as I read about it and saw your Facebook, report was it was kind of full circle for superior. I mean, and especially for somebody like you, um, I think growing up when I started hearing about the superior video, that was a novel idea that these cattle actually weren't going to come to town. They were going to stay in the country, but still be sold in an auction type format, either for near or even far out delivery. Um, and it was a hard concept for me to, to get accustomed to and you all as well. And. Now, the fact that you can do both and do it pretty effectively and efficiently. I mean, I assume most, all the cattle that were there obviously were for immediate delivery and most of those were still less than 60 or 90 days out. Uh, but got pretty close in terms of prices and everything else. It didn't, didn't really matter much when the delivery was. And, and that's something that I think. Somebody as they watch and hear about some of these video sales always has to take note We Charlie and I got to hear dr Darryl Peel speak there in Oklahoma City last week and he was talking about when you hear calf prices when you hear these types of things you have to ask a lot of questions and one of them is When is that transaction actually taking place? And so as we look at some of these video, summer sales that, you know, we can the Rockies or we can Utah or whatever we're calling it this year is coming up, that's, I guess the question that I have gotten from some customers of ours, um, where is the value going to be? In terms of weaned or unweaned, in terms of program cattle, NHTC, GAP, natural, um, What, in your mind, going forth, what should cow calf producers who have spring born calves that they're going to be weaning this fall and are trying to make some decisions on management, but then also how that works into marketing, how that works Connect the dots there and, and, and explain, I guess, and Charlie and I had this conversation, jump in if you want, but about why it is that in some markets we see these huge premiums for program cattle or these huge premiums for weaned calves or whatever the case may be. And then other times, and this is the question I got from a customer a couple of weeks ago. Um, they look at it and go, I'm not sure they're paying me to do this. So weigh in on, I know a bunch of questions in that, but that's part of the discussion.

Josh: 17:36

Yeah. And those are all good questions and questions that I get as well. You know, just weekly, daily, all year long. What it really boils down to, and part of this is my opinion, part of it is what I see in the marketplace. but it is a supply and demand driven market. Uh, so for instance, when you start talking about program cattle, you have to think about, so we're still in an industry where the majority of our calves are born. Uh, you know, from February to May one. And so the lion share of those calves being delivered either off the cow in October, November, uh, coming in December, 1st of January as a weaned calf. Uh, or going full circle and if they're retaining ownership up until their yearling weight, eight, 900 pounds in the spring. Um, but you just think about when those cattle are really being marketed. And so you have to consider. At that point, there's going to be a lot of program cattle. You're going to see a lot of program cattle delivered calves off the cow in the fall. Uh, you're going to see a lot of yearling cattle, uh, with programs being delivered, uh, in the spring of the year, either off from background or off wheat. Um, and so those time periods are when the most of those cattle are available. Therefore, you're going to see the, when you're marketing at those same times, of a premium, uh, is the best way to explain it. Um, I've always seen the, and you'll see it this summer. You'll see the biggest premium on program cattle, uh, mid to late summer as a yearling, um, or, you know, as a fall calf, uh, weaned fall calf coming in July, August, September. And that's just simply because there aren't as many of them.

Matt: 19:37

Would it have something to do with health, too, and the inability if they are in a, you know, natural type of program where they're not going to want to be. Mass medicating or having to treat a significant percentage. They want those things.

Josh: 19:51

Exactly. Exactly. And so, um, you know, we get a lot of questions, uh, superior, myself, anybody about, you know, programs on a calf. So if your program is to sell a bawling calf, you know, precondition two rounds of shots, whatever, uh, off the cow in the fall, um, uh, A natural program just is not going to add much value. If you're getting a big premium for your calves and they're on a program, it's probably more about the history of your cattle and their performance than it is about them being on a program in that time period, because as a, as somebody who feeds cattle, starts calves in the fall, um, chances of me buying your calves as natural, And me being able to keep them natural through the weaning process and through the winter, is you're going to have too much fallout. That's what we're going to assume. Now, like I said, there, there may be sets of cattle and you're going to see one here and there that bring a big price, but that's probably more about known history of those certain cattle, uh, than it is about the program itself. the other thing is. I've seen it before, mainly in 2014, 15. when cattle get as high as they are now, there's that law of diminishing returns that you, your cattle are only going to bring so much. I mean, so. You raise the best one that walks and you put them in every program that's available. Um, you're probably not going to get as much premium out of those programs as what you think you are. It's more about the cattle themselves. because you're going to compare up against a, say a conventional calf. The best that walks, but not on the programs. And, you know, you may only get three, four or 5, a hundred premium. And, and that's probably not enough. Uh, but at this point in time, it's just, it's like, how much am I really willing to spend on a set of cattle? Uh, when the market's as high as it is now.

Matt: 21:59

Consumer markets probably helping drive that too, as much as we want to say, uh, money doesn't trickle back down. When we see retail prices go up and up and up and up, there's some point that that natural or that gap at Whole Foods or whatever they call theirs, their gap certified, all of a sudden that person making that buying decision goes, I'm not sure I'm that concerned about the environment or whatever they feel like they're doing by those premium programs. And they go, you know what, I'm going to buy the commodity. Choice, whatever that's sitting there next to it.

Josh: 22:36

And that's absolutely the other component is that yes, the consumer, when you get down to the finished product and in a meat case, um, there's not, there's still some, they're going to buy that grass fed or that natural or that gap certified product every time they go to the store. But that number of people shrinks as prices get higher. And so, um, Again, it all kind of boils down to supply and demand and there's price points and everything in between really.

Matt: 23:06

So I have heard folks in the livestock marketing business. In fact, I just heard it within the last week say. Whatever you do, send me good ones and I'm going to sell them well. So from a livestock market owner, manager, from a video rep, from an auctioneer, Charly, from your perspective in 2024 and going forth, what is a quote unquote good set of cattle? What, what do they need to look like? What do they need to. Have as far as information or, you know, sky's the limit programs, ID, you name it. What are good ones today, what do we need to be making sure that you can get all you can get out of them regardless of where we sell them going forth

Charly: 23:55

When I think of a really, really good set of cattle, I mean, and what they can actually take in, I start at the very bottom, and I think about vaccinations and think about health and think about a really good mineral program. Any, any breed, if you will, can have a really good calf if they've got them on the right program. As far as when we start talking about vaccinations and if they've done the research on what they're putting out there, in their product. When I start to think about how are we really going to represent these cattle and how, what makes your cattle separate from somebody else's, it's exactly what Josh says. They've got history. And you can't beat that. I mean, you just absolutely, I would ask you the question, what makes Dalebanks as awesome as it is over the years? And that's because when I was growing up, my dad come to this sale, and that's what the neighbors had, and those genetics have continued, and that's why people are coming back. So it'd be the same, I believe, if we're looking at buying a set of feeder cattle. I know who's bought those cattle, either where they bought them from, whether they sourced them right here local, or whether they sourced them from the southeast. And so you know how those cattle are going to perform. And that's the difference to me, is when you lay your eye on those kind of cattle, you can see, uh, what the rancher's actually done to be progressive, whether he's put them on a program or not.

Josh: 25:25

you know, asking about what are the good ones, so to speak? Um, that's kind of a loaded question, especially from a sale barn manager. You know, everybody's got a good one.

Matt: 25:38

But everybody's got reputation cattle. It's just whether it's good reputation, good or bad.

Josh: 25:42

Exactly. and So to build off that just a little bit, and that's what I've kind you know, told my customers, in this business, if you are in it for the long haul, your reputation, your name is really all you have. I mean, at some point the cattle speak for themselves if you're raising them. But, Even through a sale barn. I mean, these guys know they hear feedback from their customers, whether it's an order buyer, whether it's a, uh, a feed yard operator, uh, you'd be surprised what they remember. and they're going to remember the bad ones easier than they remember the good ones. And so just reputation. And, sometimes it takes a while to build that. Um, and that kind of goes hand in hand with what I was going to, one of the remarks I was going to make Our earlier conversation about what's going to add value. What, what should they do? Should they wean? Should they not wean? What I've told guys for years is don't necessarily chase every dime that's out there. Don't try to reinvent your whole program to, to gain a few extra bucks this year. Do what's worked for you for the last, however, many years, um, do what the buyers have anticipated that you do to your cattle. because if, so if I'm a, if I'm a cow calf operator and I've for every year for 20 years, if I've weaned my calves and, and give them three rounds of shots and they never get sick for that guy that's buying them the next go round, those buyers expect those cattle to fall into that same program or same, you know, history this year that they have for the last 20. So if all of a sudden you decide this year, well, it's not worth my money to wean them. So you're going to one year out of 20, you're not going to wean them. That's a different set of buyers coming to buy your cattle. Um, And next year we might be right back at a, you know, a value added weaning program. And so you've basically cut that some of those buyers out of, of being interested in your cattle because you've changed your program and then you want to go back in a year or two and, and they might've gone to buy in a different set of cattle or sourcing somewhere else. And so that's one of the, that's always been one of my number one rules is don't reinvent your program to. Just to try to chase a dollar in any given year.

Matt: 28:13

Yeah. That consistency. We talked about that on the consumer end all the time. And I try to produce that on the genetic side all the time. But I've never really given any thought about consistency not just with genetics and where the cattle came from and the person standing behind them, but How those cattle have been handled up and to that point where they transfer ownership and that you raise a good point I mean some of us that are out here listening to this today going You know, this may be that one year that I decided not to wean, even though I've weaned for the last 20, like you said, all of a sudden you've got a different time. You've got a different set of interested buyers. Um, and if you go back to it next year, you may have lost the ones that brought you to the dance. and Charlie, you mentioned a little bit before there in times price levels, like we're seeing, I don't want to say people are encouraged to cut corners, but. There is less incentive to innovate, not, not that cutting bulls and, um, not vaccinate your calves or wean in these calves or whatever is anything that innovative in 2024, but, um, you can look around and look at somebody that just gathered them up and never put a needle in them and see what they got and go, good golly, you know, but. But really, if you think about that consistency thing, what you're doing is not just selling this calf crop, but you are keeping those folks satisfied for three years, five years, whenever from now, when we do see a little bit different time in the market, that your cattle are going to be a whole lot higher than those cutting bulls and calves that hadn't had anything done to them. Several things and I'll, I'll direct folks to a second podcast. If you get a chance after you finished listening to us, of course, but in the time that it took for Charly and I to talk about this and actually get it done today, last Saturday, uh, working ranch radio had a podcast that talked with Clint Barry, uh, with superior, I believe, and basically the same concept. So we're not going to. Plow that same ground. But there are some things that you mentioned in there, Josh, that he would have echoed, I think, in, in talking about making sure you didn't let the market drive your management. Make sure you do what's right for your calves, for your customers, for your reputation, not just a flash in the pan. I'm just going to sell them right off the cow because I don't feel like weaning them, even though I've gotten pretty good at it and I've got the facilities to do it.

Charly: 30:46

Well, I think even it goes back to when you and I were traveling, you know, and talking to your customer and do I wean, do I not wean, I've been gap in the past. Should I be, should I not be, and the cattle that's on a program, a lot of times, uh, If they're not weaned, they won't bring that great big premium, as we mentioned. But, he has or has not, they have or have not, for the last couple years, weaned. Then, and sold them really well, and have to take them 75 miles to a different facility to get them weaned. It, you know, like I say, don't reinvent the whole entire wheel or change the whole wheel. Uh, over one situation, it's, it's an ongoing joke, between Ralph and I and it happened Thursday, uh, uh, with Josh, uh, you picked your spot, you picked your spot in your catalog, right? I mean, you, we switch every 30 minutes, but you know, so from an auctioneer standpoint, You pick your spot because the first set of cattle, you know what they're going to be and you want to sell them as high as possible. And, he sold the heifers and then I got up to sell the, to sell the steers. And I picked my spot Thursday at Eldorado I mean, it was phenomenal. So, from an auctioneer's standpoint, you, they know, everybody knows the cattle and, and have studied, whether they're coming in the ring or whether it's through the catalog. But, As you, as you get ready to sell, you know, what that, what the market becomes and you know, that product. And that's, that's an auctioneer's dream. So you

Matt: 32:20

mentioned selling heifers compared to steers. Uh, we're switching gears a little bit here and one of the fun discussions right now in this point of the cattle cycle is about heifer retention. Today, I think it's pretty evident that we are in a short supply situation and pounds pay the bills, and we're going to get as much out of every animal that goes through that supply chain as we can, and that's why steers are selling for so much. And that's why heifers, especially given the fact that there aren't a lot of folks that are trying to put them back in the pasture with a bull, aren't. Um, Crystal Ball, everybody's asking everybody else. When or if, when is that likely to change?

Josh: 33:10

I think you'll, we'll start to see it this fall. Um, talked with the local customer here is going to sell his cattle on Week in the Rockies and, uh, you know, whether to keep his heifers, uh, for later in the fall. These would be fall calves, coming off the cow here, 1st of August. And, I think we'll see it. I'm anxious to see. So if you look back, uh, as long as we're just talking shop here to the last highs in 14 and 15, when this deal got so good and even prior, so like 11 and 12, when cows and bred heifers started getting higher and higher and everybody started keeping heifers and making bred heifers, I don't know that we're going to see it in that kind of number again. and you would probably have a better feel for that than I would Matt on man. The more people you talk to, the less people there are out there that are willing to calve a heifer. That's exactly right or cows

Matt: 34:11

period or cows period, but

Josh: 34:13

especially a heifer. And I'm not talking in central Kansas. I'm talking nationwide and especially even, and maybe we have more of them here in central Kansas than anywhere else, just because the re speed resources and stuff, but when you get into big ranch country and think about the age of the. of the average rancher, uh, and wanting to transition and this and that there's just not very many guys out there that want to calve heifers, especially through the winter time. And so I just wonder how that whole dynamic is going to take place as far as, as female retention and, and building back the herd. I think it's a slow grow this time. but I do think we'll, we'll see some of it. Uh, this, you know, going into this fall. but you can tell, yeah, by the steer heifer spread, uh, there's several reasons. I get a lot of questions. Why are the heifers so far back from the steers? Well, and you, you referenced that. I mean, pounds is a big thing. You know, we just last Thursday, you know, we're looking at all these big figures and I'm going through some of these prices thinking, you know, how are these ever going to work? Well, if you start just changing a few numbers, so like on a, on a nine weight steer that brings two 60, well, that's a pretty green steer weighing nine 50 off the grass. Let's make him weigh 1650. Uh, that changes the the break, even a bunch, uh, You're not going to get a heifer to weigh 1650. And if, and if you do, you're going to spend a lot of money doing it, a lot of money. Uh, so that's a, one of the biggest reasons, but, uh, yeah, like you said, when, you know, people start keeping heifers this fall and into the spring, uh, you'll see that, uh, that difference shrink a little bit, um, because they're just, there won't be enough steers and guys are going to have to buy heifers at some point. But, uh, I, I'm very interested, kind of anxious to see, uh, you know, this transition into, into retention and growing the herd back to where we were, and maybe we don't get back to exactly where we were, but it'll be interesting.

Matt: 36:24

Charlie, is he right?

Charly: 36:26

Oh, spot on. I mean, It's gonna happen to a certain extent and it's gonna come, and I believe it starts this fall. I think we'll see it more, uh, in the fall of 2025 than, than we are now. And. I think even, you know, you can look, you can look at, uh, high tech marketing. They sell all their cattle on, at Council Bluffs, and he was down, he was down almost 60 percent from his numbers a year ago simply because a lot of those are keeping heifers. Not so certain they're keeping them to breed them. I think a lot of them are going to sell the steers, and they're going to hold them heifers over and grow them because they didn't like the dollars per hundred it was behind it. So they're going to make a feeder heifer for January, February, which would be a good marketing decision. I mean, there would be probably nothing wrong with that. With that being said, as that heifer grows, You see the one you want to keep and they'll keep the ones that, that, you know, not just necessarily as black and weigh seven today, November 1st, but they'll keep her, you know, once they get everything done. And I don't think they're going to keep as many because of the age and things of that sort. But like you mentioned, we got the genetic. I mean, it's not difficult, to calve one. It just takes so many resources and so long that they're not, they're just not going to keep them.

Matt: 37:55

Yeah. I think that's a lot of it. I, I would agree. Josh, you mentioned comparing today to the last high 14 and early 15. I had a conversation, not that far ahead of the high in 2014. I'm going to say somewhere around 2010 with a customer who'd seen a lot of cattle cycles and his premise at that time was because of value based marketing, because of less true commodity type beef in the chain, he said, we may never see a cattle cycle again. And if you look back at charts over the last 30 years. We went about two, 10, 12 year cycles and didn't see a peak or a valley supply, demand, price, however you want to look at that cattle cycle. So I think we stacked up and that may be why we saw such a run up because we had a whole crop of beef producers who didn't know what a cattle cycle was, or they just heard about them. And so we made some crazy decisions in terms of, What we paid for replacement females, bred heifers, whatever the case may be back there in 14. And so fast forward to today. Now we've got another peak in the cattle cycle, price wise low in the, in the inventory. And yet that's fresh on everybody's mind. And when you hit 3000 bucks, everybody's eyes get big and they go,"Nope, I remember what happened 10 years ago. I ain't ever doing that again." And so there's this, there's this ceiling that we have put. That makes no sense if you map it across what two and a half steers are worth and what that female should be worth, we're so far out of line, we're a thousand to 1500 bucks off

Josh: 39:43

and

Matt: 39:43

yet we've got a memory that still remembers 2014.

Josh: 39:46

Yeah. And I, and rightfully so, uh, it hurt bad. Charlie and I know a little bit about that. Uh, So there's several little points in there, uh, That I want to hit on. So I'll be honest. I was probably one of those guys, you know, in 10, 11, 12, that said we're the traditional cattle cycle is over. This is, this is, you know, there's too many things changing. Um, And maybe yes, that, that every seven years or whatever the old timers would call it, maybe is a little bit extinct, but there's going to be cycles. I mean, because of. Hey, it's, it's economics, you know, we're, we're chasing it now going up and we're going to build the numbers too high and we're going to produce too many pounds and it's going to go back down. Hopefully for, for all our sakes, it's a little shallower curve than it was the last time. I think that's what got everybody last time is just, it was. I mean, I don't even know how it happened to be honest. It just straight up and straight down. And, uh, it taught me a big lesson. so yeah, those things stick in your head. But, I think it was, uh, an NCBA there back in, uh, early February they had, and I wish I had that handout, uh, but kind of showing cattle fax with their presentation, you know, what a bred heifer should be worth given what Steer calf prices were worth and like a bread heifer ought to be bringing like 5, 500 bucks. Um, and yeah, it makes sense, but then you got to think, well, okay, so do that. And I get one or two big shots out of her. Um, and then it takes another seven or eight years to pay for, um, I just hope, you know, for all our sakes that, um, and it's easy to get caught up in these times, I'm telling you what, and I don't be the first one to admit, I mean, he, you know, when the going's good and cattle are making money, we kind of put our blinders on and, and all we see is straight ahead, uh, But, you know, there's some new management risk management tools with LRP and different things out there that I hope that some of your listeners today, um, you know, keeping their toolbox and are ready to use. And, and we can all kind of weather the storm when it comes. I still argue, um, this thing is a little different. just given, All the variables, uh, as far as, you know, just total acres in production and, and people just retiring, aging out and, and just the continued better product that we're putting out the door and putting in the meat case and we see, we've seen over the last couple of years, that kind of. elasticity of, you know, you hear somebody who's got analysts and brokers on the radio, you know, people are gonna, they're gonna back off of beef. They're not gonna buy this beef. It's too high. Well, we've seen it. Um, now there is a point somewhere out there in the oblivion that we haven't seen yet that'll, um, knock people back. But we've, we've increased the consistency and, the overall product and, and not just domestically, but internationally and grown those markets so much that as long as we keep doing what we're doing in producing a safe, good, wholesome product, um, I still think the sky's the limit. Now there's going to be, to me, it's always been the outside noise. Um, we're in an election year, a lot of unrest around the world. Um, that's, there's a lot of topics there for a different type of podcast, but, those are the things that, you know, and we're not going to see it coming. And with the way that news travels, by the time we know about what's going on in our market, it's too late. And especially with, and I was just talking to a guy this morning about that. So, you know, they've raised these limits on futures contracts. So high, well, uh, one time, you know, an event that happens on the other side of the world, and we don't. You know, in the country, we don't know what's happened before we know it. They've taken nine and a half bucks off the feeder market. That's a hundred dollar bill. And I'm, and that's another thing we can talk about here. Maybe, um, later in the conversation, but as a margin operator, we're all still working on, you know, maybe we've increased our target a little bit, but you know, we're, we're all still love it if we can make a hundred dollars a head and we're dealing with, you know, 3, 000 fat cattle and 2, 500 feeders. And any investor in the world would say, we're just stupid for spending that kind of money for the, for the return on investment. Um, but that, like I said, that, that outside noise, that outside risk factor that we, We won't know until it's too late can take all the profit off the table in one day.

Matt: 45:06

That's where some programs like LRP, your livestock risk protection. Most of you that are listening have probably listened to the podcasts that, that we had a year or so ago about that and several others, but you know, there are tools there that aren't free, but at the very least, they can extend a market like we have today, that you can protect. side and still leave the top side open. And that's the cool part. I mean, we as cattlemen, we all, we can say all we want. Oh, we just want to hit things, singles and doubles, but we want the grand slam home run, and we want to be able to tell our grandkids about it and that's a way. I mean, but you also hopefully keep yourself from striking out and does it cost a little? Yeah, but it's, you know, it covers your tail and I think this is probably one of those times for the next year, two years, whatever that you go, maybe a fool. Well,

Charly: 46:04

I mean, you talk about the memory. I mean, I can remember Josh calling me vaguely on a Thursday and you know, Monday and Tuesday, they raised, changed that limit in 15 and. And, I mean, Saturday we were together and, uh, we're looking at each other and I'm like, what do you think? I mean, we're white faced and pale, we don't even want to play golf. I mean, I don't, I don't even want to go to the lake. I mean, I don't want to do, what's going to, he said, well, you're going to find out how stable we are financially because we're going to, we're, this is, this is going to hurt here for a minute. So the memory's there. Also, that's why we're still partners to this day. But now, I look at it and can talk to the guys at National Livestock and can talk to my banker on a whole different level and he says, How covered are you? It's not, we're just throwing it out there, you know, and running 900 mile an hour. And it's comfortable, but at the same time, it's really scary. But as Dr. Peel said, we, we got three years in this thing and I wanted to give him a standing ovation when he said that, I was like, can you tell, can you, I mean, write that down, I mean, sign somewhere, make sure that's real because there's so many things, as Josh mentioned, uh, that can happen overnight to change it. So yes, I mean, you want to talk about marketing feeder cattle, have a little protection and going forward. And with that, I think we see these new LRPs coming here, October, November, we're going to see what we can do with that calf that's in her belly. We just took out. And I think down, I think as we go to take our coal cows of town, look at the LRP and go"man alive 600. We might actually see that 000 bred female at that time and and she's worth it I mean it is what it is.

Matt: 47:54

Yeah We are at a as Randy block has said time again We're at a higher a newer and higher trading level I think and it's hard to wrap your head around that I mean, it's just really hard And and we don't know how long we're gonna be here But anything like that, that we can with, a modest level of cost, protect ourselves from something completely. I mean, it's like you said, Josh, it's what we don't see coming. We can talk all we want about politics or economics or supply or cow numbers or whatever the case may be. It's always what we don't see coming. It reaches up and grabs us.

Josh: 48:34

Yeah. You can talk fundamentals all day long, but that's, um. That's not what's driving the market most of the time. Um, and yeah, I just implore one may want to switch gears here, but you know, you're younger producers, I just want to reiterate, you're dealing with, with new records and all time costs and not just in the cattle, we didn't have 9 percent interest in 14 and 15. Yeah, exactly. Um, And, and what, you know, any expense, any input you put into your operation, I mean, you can't take a vehicle or a tractor or anything to town to a shop and expect to get out of the shop for less than a thousand bucks. And it's more like three, four, 5, 000 bucks. I mean, it's just insane what those costs are. So young guys out there and gals, I mean, Don't think the good times are never going to end because they will. And, and I just, you know, we need to be protected.

Matt: 49:34

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And that's, that's, um, regardless of what segment of the beef industry you are, because the folks that we sell to, whether we're talking feed yard, packer, retailer, Rest assured those folks are figuring out ways to manage their risk and they're expecting us to do the same and when we don't The market goes the other way and all of a sudden the Packer that's losing several hundred ahead today goes back to making several hundred They're gonna go well Guess what? It just, it makes smart business sense to see the tools that are out there. They didn't used to be there. Some of them, a lot of them, at least at the prices that they are, but, uh, at least consider your options there as you, as you go about, we're, we're pretty good at producing, especially on the cow calf segment, we're really good at producing cattle, the best genetics as well as we can present them. we focus on that. And then when it comes time to cash in and sell them, or when it comes to look down the line and say, what makes sense for me to spend a little, to make sure that I don't lose a bunch, then we're like, well, we've never done that before. Uh, that's probably the scariest words in English language. We've never done that. Yeah, right, right.

Charly: 50:58

So,

Matt: 51:00

so one more topic and, This is one that I guess hits home with me because anybody that's that's listened to this podcast knows that, I'm not very good at staying in my lane. Um, as far as just talking about genetics or just talking about Angus cattle or just talking about whatever it is that I'm supposed to be talking about. And Josh, not to throw you under the same, uh, bus, but you are probably a little unique in your segment of the industry in that you've been very involved with a lot of different sectors of the beef business, but also involved. I mean, are you still sitting on the Kansas Beef Council Executive Committee? And tell us how important it is from your standpoint as somebody that's marketing cattle every day for other producers, raising some of your own, growing some farm crops, I mean all the things, all the balls you've got in the air and yet you're still giving back and sitting in that room three, four times a year. From your standpoint, selfishly, do you get some value? And from an industry standpoint, how important is it that you stay engaged and learning and up on all that type of stuff?

Josh: 52:12

uh, it's hard to tell where to start there, Matt. But I have, so that's something that I've always kind of taken a little bit of pride in, and started young, you know, trying to be active in industry organizations and, you know, it was a combination of wanting to. You know, make connections, uh, make acquaintances, and improve my bottom line, but also give back, um, kind of be in the know something that's frustrating to me and, and I'm just going to talk pretty plainly and pretty bluntly, so if anybody out there gets offended, uh, you know, this is, I'm not giving you a political speech. This is what I believe. And that, um, There's a lot of people out there in the country that think they know what's going on and, and maybe want to squeal the loudest. Um, a lot of those people don't really have a clue how some of these things work, um, and what they've done for the industry. We just want to, you know, take somebody's gossip and run with it and say, Oh my gosh, look what they're doing to us. Um, Yeah, I'm going to be pretty blunt, but I, I'm going to say, if you don't think the beef checkoff has done anything for your business, then you need to get educated, uh, and look at just simple return on investment. Look at what the. the industry has invested into the check off and what the check off has returned to the industry. So we just had a meeting, um, executive meeting last Wednesday before our sale on thursday. And so I only actually skipped out on half of it to get ready for the sale on thursday. But Had, uh, a couple individuals from, from the executive committee. One had gone on a, on a USMEF trip to Korea and Japan. And the other one had gone on one here just recently to Mexico and with USMEF and just, you know, seeing where our money's gone, uh, from the Kansas perspective, we invest quite a bit of money in USMEF and I'm, my personal opinion, I'm totally on board with that. I mean, um, Um, we talked a little bit before we got on here about, um, you know, if, if you're one of those folks that says, well, I don't see any of these ads, where, where was all this advertising at that we're paying for? Well, if you live in. In Greenwood County, Kansas, or Central Kansas. Uh, like Matt said, you got a freezer full of beef and we're not targeting you. Yeah. Um, we're not, we're not the target audience. If, if we were doing that, then I would tell you we're wasting our money. Yeah. we're going after export markets. We're going after the urban populations, uh, that have been disconnected from rural America for a generation now and. We're, we're selling products to other countries in the world that we, you and I would never dream of eating. I mean, maybe some people have tried once, but I'm telling you what right now, I saw a picture of boxes. Salivary glands in a Mexican wet market in a U S box. So we are selling salivary glands to another country that's willing to pay us for them, not to dispose them. I mean, we'd be paying somebody to bury them in a hole if they were staying in the United States. And, and we're actually getting money out of those. We've added Almost 400 a head per carcass and in value by marketing our products around the world. And a lot of that's done through checkoff dollars, done through U. S. investment and U. S. MEF. So just to hit rewind, I mean, I think it's, I think it's super important. I think, I think if you're anti checkoff or you're anti industry organization, A, B, C, whoever it is, All I would say is take a minute, uh, take a day, do whatever, educate yourself a little bit, go through the process and it, and then, uh, you know, specific to the checkoff, because that's what I've been involved in for the last six, eight years. if you would take a two or three day period of time, go to the office in Denver, Colorado, or just take a day and go to the Kansas beef council office and get oriented on how that dollar comes to us, how it's spent, what firewalls are in place to protect those funds and to make them be used in a way that is suitable for all producers. I mean, just a little. tidbit here now, um, due to these, all these lawsuits and stuff that have been thrown at us over the last 3, years and really beyond that. We now have what we all call MOUs, those memorandums of understanding that we have to run through USDA specifically. And so we're not only are we audited, um, you know, by the cattleman's beef board and, and through, individual. financial audits. But now we have to get everything we want to do approved by USDA, which is time and money spent doing things that that no, we don't want to use that money doing. but it's because of the forces against it that we have to keep those firewalls and keep and spend that money on things just to ensure that, uh, you know, there's nothing going on and to try to Help people understand and feel safer about, about investing their money. But from my standpoint, it's just been about, uh, being aware, uh, understanding how the process works and, and given back a little bit. And I think just the, my time in those organizations and, and being around, uh, different segments. Segments of the industry to is like I mentioned a couple times, you know, none of us are getting any younger. And so we need good young people to step up. Um, we need people to be involved. We've got so many people that are anti agriculture, anti animal agriculture specifically. That we need to start spending a little more time doing that or we won't have anything to pass on.

Matt: 58:49

Yeah, and I think it's incredibly important, all the things that you said, and probably the thing, and we talked about this at the LMA meeting there a week and a half ago, but we have gone through about a 30 year time period, of industry infighting within the beef industry, and we have spent significant dollars, time, you name it and, and heartache arguing with ourselves. And one of the worst things about that is not the wasted time, my opinion. And I'm now I'm going to get on my soap box, but it's the fact that we took our marbles and went different directions. And so if us three have three different viewpoints on an issue, you pick the issue, check off animal ID, you know, cattle pricing, whatever the case may be. If all three of us are members of three different organizations and we disagree with each other, but we go to the organization with whom we agree with, we'll never sit down around the same table. Like we are now have a beer and say, you know what? But we disagree, but how do we fix it? Because we're in three different towns at three different association meetings. And then if we ever do get together, we just sit there and fight because our association doesn't agree. It's time. We, again, it is, I continue to hear more calls for industry unity and it's time. There's 700 and some thousand beef producers nationwide. It's time for us to finally get together. And yeah, are there going to be some hard decisions and hard discussions? Dang right, but that's how That's how family works and that's kind of what we have to be and going forth. So that's a, that's a whole lot deeper, more philosophical than feeder cattle marketing tips, but I think it's, I, I don't know that I'd say it's equally as important in the short term, but darn sure is in long term. Absolutely. So,

Charly: 1:00:52

yeah, you said something right there and it was family and the word family and I mean last Thursday between the sales, I wanted, I almost jumped on and then I got emotional, but as I'm, I can do from time to time, but looking out across that crowd and the amount of people, if it was a different kind of meeting other than having a superior there and other than having. You know, an awesome market and then having 2, 500 head of feeder cattle. If we were having an industry trade meeting, whether it's KLA, whatever, whichever one you want to name, would there be that many people in the seats? And if, if there is awesome, but I don't think there would be. And that's because we haven't done, I have not done my part. Being a part of one of these organizations is amazing and giving back To any anybody under the age of 40 get involved. I mean we have got to be more involved But with that being said just telling them that we we need to hear their voice and it needs to all come together So But it has to come back as a family. And it has to come back as, you know, that's, Josh and I both, in our opening, that's what we talked about, our family, right? I mean, that's what's important. And so, if we can take that family aspect and become unified, as we've talked a lot over the last, you know, year and a half, two years as we see different trade organizations really trying to do something to have that Goliath, I mean we all are wearing size 11 boots and We can take our size 11 boot from our trade organization and go to Capitol Hill And that's all they hear is that size 11 boot. We need a Goliath. We need to be unified. We need to be as one When we go that we truly have a voice on on whatever subject it is and and agree on it I mean, my dad and I have, and my brother and I have different things and different agreements. I, I wanted to mow the oats three weeks ago and he was right, it was raining, but we agreed and we're still family and we can disagree at different times, but you're still family and you can still make that work. And you know that it just all comes back to. We have to be unified and there has to be more unity and to have your voice heard. That's the only way we're going to do it is to get together and make these things happen.

Matt: 1:03:21

Well, I think that's a good spot to step off here. And unfortunately, I think we're gonna have to leave the 77 degree air conditioning and go back and actually do some real ranching. But, uh, no, I, I really appreciate you both being here and your leadership and your partnership and, you know, whether we're selling cattle from the block or whether we're trading them on the video or whether we're producing them back home. We each depend on everybody knowing what the other one's doing. And I think that that's something that I think sets you guys apart. And one reason why we get to do business with is because you kind of see it from all perspectives and are doing it out there yourselves as well. So appreciate you being on here and sharing and, uh, keep in touch.

Charly: 1:04:05

Matt, I just want to say you, you will never understand how much. Uh, this podcast means to not only just your local Greenwood area or the five count area, but throughout the United States. You have done a tremendous job and there's no better way to say it than just simply say thank you. But what you're doing and what's being put forth on this podcast is amazing. I mean, the ones I've listened to, I mean, some of them are just, I mean, it's phenomenal and I've called on the Callahan and I've called on the Joe Goggins and I have called on these people because of your podcast. And so keep up the great work. Appreciate it.

Josh: 1:04:41

Yeah. Thanks again, Matt. And yeah, just what Charlie said and what we were talking about, you know, it takes people like yourself to want to get involved, just do something like this. That's. You know, fun. It's beneficial for you. It's beneficial for the people that are on here. but that's what, that's a good stepping stone and, and kind of organizing people and, and getting people to come together. And, and so, yeah, I want to say thank you for having me and love to be on anytime and, and, uh, just think, uh, yeah, we all just keep Plugging away and working at it. Hopefully we got something left to leave our kids.

Matt: 1:05:18

Oh yeah. Even better days ahead. So, all right. Thanks guys. Thanks again for listening to practically ranching brought to you by Dale banks, Angus. As we've said before, if you like what we're doing here, give us five star rating, drop a comment and be sure to follow us, to hear future episodes when they're out. And be sure to make plans to join us for our annual bull sale. November 23rd at the ranch Northwest of Eureka, Kansas. This wraps up our fourth season. So we'll take a bit of a break and be back late this summer, early fall. Have a great summer. Thanks for listening. God bless each and every one of you.