Practically Ranching
Join Matt Perrier as he visits weekly with interesting, thoughtful, entertaining individuals within the beef community. Conversations will inspire curiosity and creativity while maintaining the independent spirit and practical nature for which ranchers are known.
Practically Ranching
#78 - Rich Blair, Staying in Front of the Trends
Rich Blair is a beef producer from Sturgis, SD. The Blair family has grown a cowherd over the last 25 years that is focused on meeting demands for their own ranching operation, their genetics customers, the feeding industry and the beef consumer. In addition to the cowherd, Rich also has a commodity brokerage business, where he provides risk management tools for northern plains producers.
www.blairbrosangus.com
Thanks for joining us for episode 78 of Practically Ranching. I'm Matt Perrier, and we're here thanks to Dalebanks Angus, your home for practical profitable genetics since 1904. We're finally back from a bit of a summer break and darned excited to be here. I really didn't intend to be offline quite this long, but the ranch and the family took priority, so there you are. We're back in action though, and we've got a great guest to kick things off for this fall. Rich Blair is a beef producer from Sturgis, South Dakota. The Blair family has grown a cow herd over the last 25 years or so that's focused on meeting demands for their own ranching operation, for their customers, in the genetics business, for the feeding industry, and especially the beef consumer. In addition to the cow herd, rich also has a commodity brokerage business where he provides risk management tools for Northern Plains producers. I've known of Rich for a couple of decades, and I occasionally get the opportunity to visit with him at industry events and things every few years and, and every time that I do, I'm really impressed. I'm impressed with his thoughtful, humble, fairly quiet way of tackling some pretty challenging industry issues on a lot of different fronts. As this episode's title indicates, rich likes to stay out in front of industry trends. In so doing, he really doesn't seem to worry too much about letting emotion and tradition and things like that get in the way. I. And, uh, because Rich had just finished up with a trading day, and because we're currently in one of the largest wildest bull markets that any of us have ever witnessed, we stayed fairly focused on market dynamics, on supply and demand fundamentals and other issues that surround beef cattle merchandising. You know, each time I edit one of these podcasts that I record, I learn that each of us, especially me, have a phrase that we use quite a bit as we're thinking or contemplating an answer. And I noticed that one of Rich's go-to lines was, oh, I don't know. Which was usually then followed by a folksy, very poignant nugget of wisdom that proved to me. Yeah. Rich, I think you do know. You know, I called this podcast Practically Ranching, and when I get to visit with guys like Rich, I think the name fits pretty well. There's a lot of nuance in today's cattle market. There are a lot of unknowns. There is a lot at stake, but Rich's practical way of learning from the past, looking to the future and figuring out a plan for today is invaluable. Regardless of your perspective on the many marketing issues that we tackle in this podcast episode, I think you're gonna find some valuable information during this episode with Rich Blair.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:get everything straightened out after the close in Chicago?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:pretty much. I don't know. That's crazy, crazy times.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That they are. So I'd ask you to kind of start us out by telling everything that you and your brother and sons and everybody does there Blair brothers, but I usually only record for an hour and as many irons as you've got in the fire. I'm not sure we'd have time to talk about everything. I mean, when you meet somebody in an airport or at a meeting, what do you tell'em that you do?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Uh, I got a commodity brokerage office and a ranch. Ranching operation. That's about all I, that's about what I tell'em.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, that's probably just vague enough that gives you a little bit of, uh, of leeway. But in that ranching operation, you've got quite a few different irons in the fire there.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:there's not, there's not many people will, will really ask a lot of questions after that, which is good.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, I have to admit, You're one of these people who we could talk about nearly any topic in the beef industry and, and I think you would have some experience on, I was trying to kind of get some thoughts together late last week and this weekend in preparation, and my daughter Ava, who's just started to work for, um, on her career after she graduated from K State, um, she sent me a Facebook meme or post, I don't know what they're called, but it said something to the effect of, and it was from a beef producer or a beef producer group, something to the effect of pounds, pay the bills, everything else is just a marketing scheme. I said, what I said, and you know, those posts kind of cracked me up sometimes, but this one in particular, she said, how do you, how would you even respond to that? Well, I don't. I don't comment or read the comments very often, but I told Ava my response would be, I'll bet these folks didn't remember 1996 or the eighties or all the times that we tried to just produce pounds that maybe weren't the quality that the consumer was wanting. I mean, how, from your seat, whether it be in your commodity trading business or your seed stock herd, or your cattle feeding entity or commercial cow calf operation, how do you respond to something like that today? And, and granted, yeah, we've got, gotta make pounds, it makes sense. But, is that all there is in the beef industry today?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I don't know. My first response to that is I assume he is kinda knocking value based marketing and, and just calling that a marketing scheme saying it as a, as it's a bad thing, but. I don't know. My thought about that to some extent is this person is possibly in the cattle business, but if that is the only, market that they have, or their reason for being in the cattle business is raise pounds, I think they're missing an awful lot of the market. you know, think of what, think of what, a really good heifer calf that's breeding quality is gonna bring, I don't know, say this fall, she's gonna bring a heck of a lot more than what she weighs. I know. I mean, it's not just pounds that are gonna determine her value. I know that. And same thing with bred heifers and bred cows and, and a lot of other things.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, and even on the feeding side of things, and I think you're right, I think that that would have been a little bit of a knock against value-based marketing and probably anything that would be a branded type, consumer driven, consumer signaled type of, uh, of program that would segment the beef marketplace and try to incentivize producing something besides just commodity beef. And, and, and that's why I said my comment to Ava. Th they, they must not have as much gray hair as I do because every time in my life until this last run up and, and maybe 2014, we could say the same thing, but every other time that retail beef prices got a little bit outta whack with pork and poultry and all of our other competing proteins, man, we would absolutely crash this market as quickly as you could do anything because we'd already started heifer retention. And so supplies were starting to come back up and, and then all of a sudden, we got a little outta line and they traded down to pork and poultry. And the fact of the matter is, everything you read today says that consumer, for whatever reason, is not trading down, at least like we have seen in past years. And my rationale is because even though they kind of grimace a little when they buy that high dollar steak, when it eats well and their family brags on'em and thanks'em and remembers that meal experience, they come back and do it again at a higher price point next time.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh man, Matt, I mean, this, this market has just been and it's hard to imagine why we've gone as high as we have. Um, but you know, at this point in time, I think it's been a demand market. don't think the reason we're at these price levels today is not because we're, we don't have any pounds of beef on the market. it, it is, it's totally consumer demand and what they're willing to pay for our product the grocery store in the restaurant. And you know, I, I remember thinking whenever COVID hit and grocery stores were shelves were bare and, and, uh, people couldn't get product. And the beef market went to during COVID, and I could re recall thinking, boy, always said all my life, we can't sell beef that high.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:guess at that point COVID proved him wrong because we could sell beef that high.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it's just, it's a, it's an amazing story what beef demand has done. And I, I thought it was funny. I listened to one of your podcasts before and you talked about Yeah. Where we had fat cattle in 60. You know, traded in a range of 60 to$82 for a long time back there in the eighties and nineties.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And, and I was, you know, involved in trying to, to watch the market at that time and forecast of which way the, where the trend was going. And every time we'd get to 82 bucks, the, the, the market would sell off. And, and it took me several years later to figure out, well, the reason that was, was because retail beef prices were$2 and 11
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and every time, and that equated to$80 fat cattle. And every time we got up to the top of that, we didn't have enough power to make the retailer raises price. And, and so there we were stuck. And boy, now it's just, you know, look at where retail prices are today. You know, they're, they're at eight 90 and. nine and half on choice product. It's just a whole different market.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:And not only that, not only have they priced those higher and higher and higher and continued to sell it, there's some of these, I mean, look at Walmart and what they're doing with the Prime Pursuits program. I would say, and I don't know that anybody at Walmart has ever said this, but I would interpret that to what they're doing is almost placing beef out there as a loss leader to get foot traffic into their stores so that they'll go ahead and buy all the other expensive cheeses and bottle of wine or whatever else that they buy with the steak. When we can be at that point and draw foot traffic into the store and the retailer go, you know what? I can sell this at a zero margin or maybe even a negative margin. Holy smokes. I mean, what? How in the world did that happen from the days when I was graduating from college and we talk about why, whatever it was, four in 10 beef eating experiences were unsatisfactory and they traded down to a boneless, skinless, tasteless chicken breast.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, I think, I think we've improved the quality of our product and and demand is proven that that's what people want.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yep. Yep.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, I think, I think it's the only answer for it, that our product is that much better. And, and I mean, it's like people, you know, uh, will hardly ever order a pork chop in a restaurant.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:just because, you know, I, I hate to say it, but it's not that good a product not for me to go into a restaurant and spend 50 bucks on eating a meal. I'm not going to eat a pork chop. I'm gonna have a filet or a rib
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:yep, yep. You and, uh.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it will be good.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:And hopefully everybody else continues to do the same. Your comment about today's market being largely, if not almost solely driven by demand. That's the thing I kind of chuckle as I hear people talk, especially some of these, you know, more consumer news type services saying, well, the reason beef prices are so high is because of the drought and we've got fewer cows and everything else. But like you said, we're still selling close to now. In the coming months, we may get really tight, but close to the same number of pounds just because we're putting more pounds per head and moving it through the system. And I heard another, uh, analyst, commodity trader broker back in January when we first sold fat cattle, a little above two bucks. He said, guys, hold on, because this isn't a supply driven market yet. And some of the, some of the folks in the room kind of. Bristled up and said, oh, we got tight cow supplies, et cetera, et cetera. And he said, no, not yet. I mean, we haven't hit a shortage of pounds yet. And when we start keeping replacement females, which I think we are just starting to do, my personal opinion, um, then this deal could really get wild. And I guess my question to you is, without putting you on the hot seat, how high is too high when we do break the thing and, and, uh, it gets even more outta whack.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Uh, I don't know if anybody knows how high is too high. You know, cattle market is a anticipatory market and it will anticipate. Uh, the increase in numbers or the decrease in demand, well before it happens, but, um, you know, this market has been a classic cash led bull market. I mean, the cash has led the futures market kicking and screaming to the upside, and especially in the feeder cattle
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it. like to say right now, you know, everybody in the cow business is, is got a common denominator. I mean, and that's from the packer to the guy that runs six head of cows is they're all chasing inventory. They all, they all feel like they want more inventory'cause they need something to sell.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it's just a, it's amazing how that psychology is playing right now. And I think that's what's. Driving higher prices every week and, and, and just driving a lot of the market is everybody's chasing the inventory.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I ran into a customer just last Thursday in Eureka, Kansas, and uh, he had sold a set of weaned fall calves, local livestock market here, and it was the first instance that I'd heard, I knew this would happen. I didn't. Know when, but first instance I had heard that his heifers, and he'd already kept his own replacements, but his heifers outsold the steers both on a per pound and a per head basis. And so that tells me that all of a sudden the cow calf producer either new entrants into the business or folks because they've had some rain and they've got some cheap forage and whatever else they're, they're chasing inventory too and trying to rebuild some of these cow herds. So I would, I would say anecdotally, and I have no other data'cause we haven't had a more real recent cattle on feed report that has shown any different than that 30 whatever, seven, 8% heifer on feed data. But, uh, I would say that we're finally, maybe we've, we've flipped that switch and, and they're starting to keep some heifers.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah. It just takes so, long before we can really get that done. I mean, especially it seems like in
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:It's my part of the world
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:in the north, I mean it, the, you know, heifer calves that really needed to be bred, needed to be bred last spring, and there's not many people that are gonna breed them
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:today.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:because that calving period doesn't work in this, in
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Sure.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And so, I mean, you're, it takes
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Quite a while.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:gotta kind of. Plan ahead to keep those heifers and get'em bred in the spring, because fall breeding doesn't work here.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:um, it, it's been a long time since we saw heifers, outsell steers too. But, you know, that's coming
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it's, it's, it's gonna be. Um, and that goes back to your guys talk about, know, everything else is a marketing scheme. Well, I guess my question to him is, what's
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:What's so bad about it?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:marketing scheme? Most people, you need a marketing scheme in this, in this business, for the most part.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I think it's interesting to me that so many of our industry squabbles, and I mean you can take your pick over the last 20 to 50 years. So many of our industry squabbles are a group who says, we want to continue to be a commodity type of ag product as opposed to a group or groups who say, we want an opportunity to segment the market and figure out what somebody will pay more for, whether that be beef or replacement females or bulls or semen, or whatever the case may be. And and quite often if you boil it down to it is, are we gonna break from tradition and that commodity mindset? Or aren't we? And um, and you know, that you'd think that capitalism would win the day, but sometimes, um, it seems like we, we revert to those kind of more tradition based approaches.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Matt, I, I, I think a lot of that is because of, you know, you look at the players in the industry and the structure of what it's always been, and a lot of the players in the industry, used to be, especially, I don't know, earlier days of my career, was it. wanted to buy the, the cattle that had not been well taken care of and were green and upgrade'em into the take below average cattle and upgrade'em to average and sell'em on the average price. was, that was a business model that worked, was very successful in the cattle industry for long time through the seventies, eighties, nineties, and even a little bit into this last decade. But I think, you know, that has kind of changed and there's people that, that don't want to change with that because they know how to play that game. They know how to upgrade cattle and'em at the average, but they don't know how to the cattle that truly have extra value to'em and know how to market those cattle that have extra value and take advantage of that. And that, that's probably the one thing that got us kinda kinda breeding genetics and, and using AI bulls and selecting for, um, for those kind of things that would make a premium, because those are the kind of cattle that, um, that don't ever quit you. They just, you know, some order buyers won't like to buy'em because they look too fleshy to'em or they don't look, you know, green enough to'em. And the thing is, they don't understand that those kind of cattle can just go on and go and, I mean, that's, that's, and
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:And.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:important thing in the market today. You know, if, if you wanna know what to pay for a set of feeder cattle, the first thing you've gotta figure out for yourself is. What will the end weight be on them? You know, can I get'em to 1500 pounds or can I get'em to 17 or 1750? mean, it doesn't take very long to sit down with a pencil and figure out that, to, to get these cattle back to a break even that works. You gotta put a lot of weight on'em uh, that's just kinda the key today in my mind.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:So through the years, through the decades, you've fed tens of thousands, heck, maybe hundreds of thousands of cattle, your own, probably others. And you've seen that marketing system morph into what we have today and value-based marketing, as you mentioned a bit ago, in my opinion, and I think in yours, has driven and has enabled us to capture back a lot of that demand. One, and we've talked about it on this podcast ad nauseum, but one at least perceived, Consequence of value-based marketing is that we got fewer cattle in that cash negotiated market week to week, and yet we're still basing all those value, most of those value-based grids off of a negotiated price in some region. Is that still effective from your standpoint as a cattle feeder? Is there a better mouse trap? Do we need more cash, cattle, et cetera, et cetera?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, you know, Matt, I've kinda always been a Turner Iner for the last 20 years. I haven't been a, price negotiator on the Fed Cal end of it that much. But, you know, I think we gotta remember a little bit who, you know, what's
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:What's.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:it to not have to, you know, trade a lot of cash cattle or trade all these cash cattle. I mean, it's the feed yards that have basically driven that. I don't think the packer has held a gun to their head and said, don't want to negotiate price with you anymore. We just want you to turn cattle into us. I think, I think it's the feedlots that, has instigated that and. You know, oh, there was an awful lot of talk about this whenever they were pushing for the 50 14 rule and we, we gotta, we gotta regulate how feed yards can sell cattle and how packers can buy cattle. And, and I guess I always thought that was a big mistake and I think, I think you've gotta give these feed yard guys a little bit of credit that when the thing quits working for'em, they'll change it. But, you know, it's still working for them and I think it's still working for the bulk of the people and I don't know what percentage that we need a live trade. I'm not smart enough to tell you that, and I darn sure don't think the government's smart enough to tell us that. But, you know, it's like I say, nobody's holding a gun to the feed yard manager's head and saying you need to sell cattle. This way and you can't negotiate price well if it, if it quits working for'em, I guess I have faith in them that they're gonna change it.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Will. What we're seeing today, and I assume that I haven't looked here the last couple weeks, but I know for the last several months there's been a significant basis, significant difference in the cash price from North to South. And granted, there is gonna be some quality differential from, let's say, the Texas panhandle to Western Nebraska or Iowa or wherever you wanna base that, but. Your thoughts on why we've seen a, a, a more significant, even as a percentage of these higher prices, why there's such a difference in that live price negotiated price from North to South these last few months?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Uh, I don't know. There's probably lots of reasons for it. mean, um, you're, you're talking
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:talking to.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:that has trucked his cattle through Nebraska to take him to Kansas to sell him on the average Kansas price. So when you do things that stupid, I think you try to look at yourself and see what is going on. and that's almost as stupid as feeding$8 corn and taking a heavyweight discount on my steers. It's kind of the same deal, but I,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:think it's a leverage thing. you know, gotta
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:understand.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:country. I was tired of calving in March and April, and they've gone to May and I didn't realize how widespread it was until even last fall uh, you know, we were dry in September, way dry. And I kept thinking, man, we're gonna start selling calves in sale barn. And never showed up. And they never showed up and they never showed up till the 10th of October. I had asked one of the sale barn guys, I says, what, what, what's going on? How come nobody's bringing any calves to me? He says, well, shoot, they've all backed their cabin dates up till May, and their cows are still kind of fat, even though it's kind of dry and they just kind of want to get a little more pounds on'em. Well, you look back into the nineties and the the modus operandi or whatever for the corn belt was, you take the big heavy calves and you push'em and you have'em done in and April,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yep. Sell'em on that April market
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:and
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and by golly, have'em done by
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:by June.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:or it's. really bad. And I, I had a great friend, a market analyst, he told me, well, there should be a law against selling fat cattle in July.'cause it's just, and now that's the,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:until this year, that's.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:that's the great market. But I, you know, I've been telling people that think by the first November, Texas is gonna be premium to, to Nebraska. And they're, they're like, how can you say that? And I just say, well, I, I think it's leverage. I think, know, the reason Nebraska is$10 over, Texas and Kansas in May and June is'cause they don't have the calf beds they used to have.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And we'll see when Texas hits into the, the hole where the Mexican cattle should be this fall. We'll see whether Texas can sell premium to Nebraska, but that would still be my bet. I, I sent my calf feds to, to kept them in South Dakota this year and I sent my yearlings back to Kansas, so we'll see.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, we appreciate it, rich. Keep, keep sending them to Kansas. Don't, don't worry about that differential. We'll, we'll make it up and cost of gain or whatever the case may be. Well, that's probably not true either. Depends on the winter, I suppose.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:and that's one of the things, um, I keep going back to this Facebook post, but whether it be at the local sale barn cafe or coffee shop, or online social media, there are so many of these issues in the beef industry, especially when they relate to marketing and price that we all try to make really simple. You know, the reason, this is the reason that cattle are higher in Nebraska than they are in Kansas. Or this is the reason why we saw a dip in feeders two weeks ago, or whatever the case may be, when in actuality it's probably a hundred different reasons and it's very nuanced and a lot of'em we may, we may not know until after they've already happened. And a changing structure, a changing age of the producer and their willingness to keep back heifers and calve in February in the Northern plains and all these different things go into this. And quite often we miss that in the quick soundbite, trying to play the blame game.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh, that's true, Matt. yeah, and you don't ever know. in, In my career, kinda as a market analyst and a, cattle trader and cattle. Market forecaster. I mean, I, oh, you know, a lot of people say, well, you can't forecast the market. Nobody knows what it's gonna do. Well, no, you can't. But, but you can forecast trends and trends are easier than timing and, and, you can forecast at least tendencies. But there's always all kinds of noise out there that everybody gets caught up in. I mean, you got, I mean, there and, and I call all the distractions and all the little things is, that's all noise, there's typically always a, a main driver that powers through everything and. I mean, a lot, a lot of times you gotta stay focused on what that main driver is to, to know where the trend is and where you're going and, and what you're doing. But, you know, I, I just like, I, say the driver in the market, today's demand, and that's been the driver here, and supplies may become the driver for the next months as demand may take a back seat supplies will go to the forefront. But, um, you've also gotta look at the, try to try to weed out all the noise and figure out what the real driver is in a market. I mean, you know, it's like these screwworm rumors I mean, they are not, they're not gonna have a big effect if we get a screw worm. Another person from Guatemala and Maryland that has Screwworm infection, the driver is that the Mexican border shut down and we've got a lot less Mexican cattle coming into the United States, and that is gonna take effect. You know, November, December in Texas it's already taking effect there. Placements were down 25% on the last cattle on feed report. You know, that is a driver.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I know you said you don't have any, um, firsthand knowledge of the Mexican beef industry and their structure, but where do you see those cattle going? Are they gonna stay in Mexico? Are they gonna be held and fed as aged cattle up here, when and if the border comes open, what are your thoughts there? I had a guy ask me the other day, you know, everybody thinks these cattle just disappeared, but is that beef gonna come onto the world market in a couple hundred days? And if so, how are we pricing that into the system?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I don't know. It's got, you know, those
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Cattle
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:gotta be there.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:air,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:was
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:somebody
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:trying to tell me the other day, well, trucking them to
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:was in Brazil.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:where they're going with them. And so
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That's a long haul,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:well, how far is
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:is it? That's
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:to
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:a lot.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Depends on what part of Mexico
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah, it looked like, like you could go from here to of America
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Of America about.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:times before you got to Brazil. But, you know, I,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, I guess I,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:don't know. I, I can't imagine that there's much packing capacity in Mexico to take that over or else they'd be doing, they wouldn't have been shipping'em to the United States anyway. And you would think at this point they've gotta be sitting there, uh, you know, hanging onto'em. I mean, we learned that COVID you could hang onto cattle a heck of a lot longer than you ever thought you could.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I mean, there's been other times in history where people were forced to hang onto cattle and, um. I'm sure that's kinda what's going on and, and non-fed slaughter at this point in time would probably be welcome to Packers up here. You know, with cow slaughter being down like it is. Um, you know, they may, they may come in and not ever go through a feed yard and not really feed the count, go into non-fed slaughter,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Hmm. Which would take pounds off the market, but still replace some imported beef for, you know, cows or whatever the case may be. And, and as we see cow retention or heifer retention, probably cow retention for that matter of cattle staying in a range type cow herd environment, uh, as prices get higher. Yeah, that's, there's gonna be a need for that lean trim one way or the other.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:yeah. I mean, I think there's a need for it today, and I'm sure it would be
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh, obviously, yeah. Yeah,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, imagine. The fight that's going on in Texas between TCFA and Texas Southwest Cattle Raisers. I mean, I, I commend them for, for not making it pub to public. I haven't
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I haven't heard
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:about the
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:the fist fights that.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:on down there, but I'm sure there's gotta be some. But, um, that's a, that's a
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That's a tough call.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:for the Secretary of Ag to be from Texas, that's a tough
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Tough call.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I commend them for slowing things down and thinking about it and shutting the border down and to, trying to
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:to keep
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:that
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:that.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:out the US I mean, I think that's very important.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh yeah, yeah. We've got to, and hopefully the work that they're doing on these sterile flies and getting that back into the levels that it was supposed to be at already, but, uh, obviously hadn't been. Hopefully they can get on top of it, but yeah. It's, you know, however many hundred miles, they keep reporting that a little closer and a little closer, you know, anything under a thousand's too close. I mean, it's, it's, um, yeah, kind of scary stuff.
squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-2025_204055:That's why we need an electronic animal disease traceability system in this country so that we can quickly identify where a suspect animal came from and what other animals it came in contact with.
matt_3_09-02-2025_204055:Yeah, it makes, it makes sense and it, it gets a lot of negative publicity, but that's, that's what it comes down to and that's, those types of things, probably the worst being hoof and mouth disease, but those types of things are why we need it, so we don't have to shut the entire border or the entire country down. Just find where we had the culprit and make sure nothing else was in contact and roll on.
squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-2025_204055:We, we need to get in the 21st century with it. It just, you know, the old, the old ways are not quick enough anymore. It takes too
matt_3_09-02-2025_204055:yeah. How, how does that set with the neighbors up there? Rich?
squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-2025_204055:Oh. Oh. It's pretty disheartening that we can't even get'em to. the EID tags instead of the bangs tag. There's
matt_3_09-02-2025_204055:Yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-2025_204055:of people that wanna even fight that, and I think they have the idea that those little tags carry way more information than what they do. They don't understand it. All they are is a number.
matt_3_09-02-2025_204055:Yeah. Yeah, and it has become a lightning rod without a doubt.
squadcaster-h63b_3_09-02-2025_204055:Yeah. And it's too bad because it's really. Um, we really need to be able to quickly move if there's something, a disease happens that, uh, that needs to be stopped.
matt_3_09-02-2025_204055:Yep, I agreed.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:So you said a minute ago that. The big trend, the big driver of this market is demand. What's behind that demand? What's driving that demand, if you will?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:No, I, I think number one is more taste and consistency than what we used to have, but. You know, number two is, uh, protein is in vogue and carbohydrates are out, you know, and, uh, it's what we, we as ranchers always was that meat doesn't make you fat. It's the potatoes and the chips and the cake. And, and we knew that'cause we feed corn to cattle
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yep.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and to make your cattle fat, you feed'em carbohydrates. And, um, you know, that is, that's what's in vogue. I mean, everything is protein anymore. And, and I mean, I think by, by rights, I'm glad the world's finally seen what we knew. But it's that, and, and, uh. Oh, GP one inhibitors,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:the weight loss drugs, and, you know, I, I think initially they thought meat was gonna take a backseat on that, but I think, that's helped the hamburger market quite a bit. And, and I, I had a, I had a restaurant guy tell me, and it was probably back in November, and he, at that point he said, you know, the, the center of the plate, he said, it's not, is not changed. It's, it's the same price it was. He says, everything around, it's gone up. All my other costs have gone up, but my center of the plate is the, is the cheapest thing I, you know, is cheap today still. And I, I think, you know, some of, some of that's been a driver too, but,, um, my wife's a nurse and she used to come home and tell me, well, we had a nurses meeting and two or three of them even ordered steak. And how
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Awesome. Yeah, exactly.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:of the nurses ordered steak the cancer doctors ordered steak. And, and you know, we went, went out the other night to a retirement party and yeah, the people were, fish was not the top of the menu. It was, it was filets and, and it was, it was protein. And I think, I think, you know, the whole trend has changed.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:My son Lyle is a sophomore at Kansas State, and he is in an accounting, general accounting at the business school, not ag business, but the business school class. His semester, and I'm not sure how this topic came up, but one day in class there was a survey question of what the student's favorite meal was, favorite food, and he said 80% of the folks that they called on or surveyed said either a steak or a hamburger. As their favorite. And these are 18 to 20-year-old college kids at a university that I would like to say it could land grant College is pretty conservative, but is not anymore. Um, I mean, that would've never, I was there in 92 to 96, and I promise you that that would've never been the case in the mid nineties. And yet, because all the things we've just talked about that it's a, a good product and b, that the health experts have finally come around to saying, you know what, maybe we were not only a little off but backwards on what we were suggesting for the last several decades. I mean, it's, it all plays a part.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, I Can remember when the very first, talk of the Atkins diet came
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, and I, man, was that like in 2000 or
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:It'd been. Right. Yeah. Right around there. Yeah.'cause it was shortly before I moved back here in oh four.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and it, I mean, that kind of changed the world at the time. I mean, that, that was a, was a whole new story that nobody had ever really heard. And then, and then somebody had a book come out, what if it's all been a big fat surprise?
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah. Nina Teicholz. Yep.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And mean, those things kind of start to turn the, turn the tide.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, you've got so many others that are now kind of pop culture icons that are promoting high protein diet and, and I think folks are seeing it and they're feeling the results, they're noticing the results fairly quickly and yeah, it's, uh, it's great. let's project this trend and this driver of demand forward five years, 15 years. Um, if we continue to see this much demand for beef, how do we ever meet that demand from a industry structure, acreage, everything else standpoint? How do we make enough steaks and filets and grind and everything else to satisfy the demand?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:That. I mean, that's a good question, but I mean, I don't think you gotta go out five years. I mean, what are we gonna do in two years? I
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, for sure.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:if
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I'm saying even if we got back to 30 million, I mean, even if we got back to a quote unquote normal sized cow herd, whatever that is, we may still not be able to meet it, which I guess is a great problem to have, but at the same time, any other business would say, okay. What do we need to do to make sure that we're able to skate to where the puck's going, not where it is today or where it was 20 years ago? How do we do it?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, you know, I guess you give, you give a cattle guy, there's a lot of people that wanted to be in the cattle business, whether they were making money in it, in it or not. And
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:cattle guy a little bit of incentive and better, better stand outta the way. But you know. Let's say if this, when this market holds for another year and people get a little belief in it, um, you know, there's a lot of things that are gonna change and, you know, can cattle buy some acres back from some crop ground? And, they maybe don't have to buy very many acres. They just need to buy some acres where you can calve some cows and, and, and a place to keep'em. Um, but I mean, our land prices are gonna pasture land prices are going to, in my mind, get a lot higher pretty quickly, and. There's just a lot. I don't know, I don't know if I can, I can't wrap my head around what all's gonna change with the infusion of cash it's getting put into this industry. But, but the other thing I was thought some about today, I mean, it's not just gonna be people within the industry. They're gonna put money into it. It's gonna be people coming from outside the industry want to get into it. I mean, it's just like when the Packers were making so much money. Look what the people that wanted to get in the packing business.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And I can't imagine, all the people that's gonna want to get in the livestock business as this market stays at these kinda levels and.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, and especially as you see, three and a half,$4 corn. Eight,$9 beans. And I mean there's, there are going to be some farmers who I think probably tore out fences a mere 10 or 15 years ago who may be putting something back up.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:you know, we can do, I mean, we can do that. I mean, they can crops and, and you don't have to plant it back to grass. You can plant to hover, cover crops and forage and, and use electric fence and use some kind of temporary fencing. And, and, you know, people are very resourceful. And I, I mean, I, I think the thing that's holding us back the most right here is almost that everybody says,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Says, oh.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:into that trap in 20 14 15, and I'm not falling into it again. And I'm not going to increase numbers here, but, um, there's some people that are seeing, seeing what's coming down the line and they're seeing that they need to get outta the stocker business and into the cow calf. And I mean those, the, there's, they're sure some of that taking place. And I think what's interesting is they're, they're doing it from a value-based standpoint too. I mean, they, they're not buying my poorest bulls. They, they wanna buy the good ones and they wanna
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yep.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:cows. And, and I mean, we saw that. 13, 14, uh, with the
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:liquidation.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and Oklahoma and how much better the percent choice has gotten and the percent prime. And I think a lot of that's changing cow herd in that last rebuild. And I think that'll probably happen again here too. we could get a, get another jump in some prime and choice, but I think that's good. I think, I think it's proven that that increases demand and I, I think that's good.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:yeah, there's, there's no doubt that, um, the new entrance into the beef industry have. Have studied their lesson and they, you know, you mentioned how many got burnt from 14 into 15. I Think part of that is that we hadn't seen a significant cattle cycle in 20 or 30 years leading up to that, what we saw in 14. And, and there were a lot of young folks younger than me that had never, they didn't remember 19 95, 6, and they dove in and thought it, would be that way forever. And, and, um, now everybody remembers it 10 years later. And so yeah, there's, there's a lot more hesitation.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah. And interest rates are different. And
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh yeah, that's a big one. Huge.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I was just looking, you know, risk management has been a big buzzword again here, and I mean it as it always should be. But, guess thing
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:thing that I kind
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:out was that, that in our home
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:raised cattle.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:that what we could do as far as building grid premium into those cattle. me that was a risk management tool on them.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Um, because you, you could usually get a enough over the commodity market, that I think in probably the 25 years that we've kind of sold cattle on a grid that maybe there's been two years where those cattle have ever lost money just on a cash to cash business, cash to cash basis. And, people think, well, risk management is just in the futures market. But I think there's a lot of other things that go into management than just the futures market. But they're, you know, it's very, they're both very important.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That, that genetic hedge, as it has been called, I think has become almost as important for folks risk management as, as what the, the market hedge would be. I mean, it just allows you, like you said, to do so many different things and buffer against the market downturn. And, and you could even say on the cow side of things that you can build that genetic hedge in there too by, you know, buying cattle that are raised in a similar environment and all these different things, but like said on a terminal side, allow you to capture those value-based premiums. So switching gears, or I guess kind of going back to that competition for those acres, whether it be cattle or crops or whatever else might be on there. There's been a discussion the last year or so within the industry of trying to get government, I hate to say subsidies, but let's just say, intervention into things like the crop insurance program and the LRP program on more of a even keel so that young beef producers can have the same opportunities that young crop producers may in terms of assuring a profit or assuring a payment back on loans and things like that. Thoughts on that? I, I have mine, but, where do you see that going? And as an industry, what do we need to be ready for as we talk about comparing how Uncle Sam is involved or isn't involved in the different agriculture commodities?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Uh, I guess my, my fear on that to some extent, and I don't have anything really to base it on other than maybe my own thoughts, is the government is somewhat setting, up to get from, some price supports. I mean, they, You know, it was just, it's just like the CRP program. I mean, people thought, oh, they did the CRP because we, we wanted to improve conservation and we wanted to help pheasant numbers and we wanted to help this. And no, it wasn't, CRP wasn't about that at all. CRP was about, they were tired of paying storage on grain and it was cheaper to put the, take the ground out of production and to pay grain storage. You know, almost think, uh, these insurance programs are gonna be cheaper than paying drought deficiencies and, I don't know, blizzard losses and whatever that, at some point, if we get into a disaster, Gary's gonna say, well, hey, we, we put it out there that you could buy price insurance on your calves and you could buy rainfall insurance and. have been taking advantage of that instead of waiting for another, another government program handout. And, maybe that doesn't answer your question, but that's somewhat to me where I see that, I see these programs going. I, I think it's a way for government to get their hands out of it to some extent. know,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Know.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Way a young people are gonna get involved in the industry is if the old people give'em a chance.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I kind of think, I mean, they've, they're gonna have to help'em along some, and they're gonna have to, know, sell'em some land that not housing development prices and some people get started because it's gonna be really tough if the market holds for another year or two. I don't know. I, I don't think it's, it could be government's involvement, but I don't think it has to be.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, I mean I'm gonna show my true colors. I don't think it has to be, in fact, I think we'd be better off long term if it wasn't, I mean, I don't know.'cause we don't farm much of any, but I was told that in this most recent big beautiful bill that they've increased the government portion of the premiums for crop insurance, at least in some regions. And I think Kansas may be one of them, higher than it used to be. And I think that's been one of the rubs with some of these livestock folks that say, okay, a kid can go get. A loan for a combine and a cash lease, a bunch of acreage because Uncle Sam has made crop insurance enough of a guarantee and subsidized it at a level high enough that that can be guaranteed. And a set of bred heifers using an LRP on an unborn calf isn't as good. Well, they're wanting to move the, the, the government's portion of that LRP premium up, and I'm going, why not move the crop insurance down? Uh, but I guess I shouldn't be asking this of a commodity trader, but, uh,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh, I dunno.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:but I, I think we saw, we talked about ripping fences out and turning, you know, grass or forage crops into beans and then corn a dozen years ago in this part of the world, those acres should have never been converted from. Fescue or whatever they were into farm ground and they probably never would've been, had it not been for a guaranteed payment through crop insurance and from, I mean, you all are a Leopold conservation winner. Your family is, I mean, we end up making in opinion, bad decisions for the environment and for our acres that we steward when we are guaranteed by Uncle Sam that we're gonna make a payment off of it. We do things that that soil shouldn't be asked to do.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh yeah. There's no doubt about that. Western South Dakota and Western Kansas. You can see it,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:all of that. But, um, you know, I don't know market, sometimes I kind of think, well, the market will take care of that. I don't need to worry about who's gonna take care of it. I just need to figure out what the trend is and how to get in front of it,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yep.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:you know? Um, and, and you, we talk about, well, why is the band so good? Well,'cause people like it. Well, we don't have to have beef to sustain ourselves. We sure wanna have steak. But, we could live on without it. mean, you could. You wouldn't enjoy life, but you could live without it. Um, but where I was going there is, uh, I don't think we want to get the government to worry about how much guaranteed beef supplies we have. I, I think we just, I think we wanna still our destiny there on how many cattle we wanna raise and how many we can do efficiently. And, um, cattle market's always been a dynamic enough market that it, it rights itself pretty quickly. And uh, I would assume that'll be the case at this point too. But it, it's gonna buy some acres. I mean, like I said, it's gonna, you got cover crops and you've got things like that, that, that we're gonna, we're gonna take some acres out of, you know, shouldn't be in corn or beans, and we're gonna take it back to grazing. And, the tight rope that, that we don't
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Don't want
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:is, we
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:walk, don't want.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:get too tight and close down a bunch of packing plants and then have to be, have to be back in that game again to where we don't have enough kill capacity to kill as many cows as we have.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:And, and I think that is one of the things that, um. Bothers me the most when we start talking about some of these legislations that say who can or can't own cattle and where cattle can or can't flow from and, and all of these different things. We've built an infrastructure that kind of works pretty well and it's, it, it allows for some ebbs and flows because of drought and because of some black swans like COVID and things like that. And yeah, maybe rough and tumble for a few months, but then we kind of find that equilibrium and man, we ratchet this thing back and look at long term having 25 million cows instead of 30 some. Even if we feed those things to 1650 or 1750. Um, yeah, we, we end up. Shutting down some infrastructure like we did what, 15, 18 years ago? And then we do have the leverage shift in the wrong way from a producer standpoint. I, I think that's one of the things that, you know, you just said how you get in front of that trend. Man, as individual producers, it's tough. It, it's tough to see what's coming. And again, skate to where that puck's going, not where it is now.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh, that's why you need to listen to podcasts and read as, I mean, there is so much more information out there than there was 30, 40 years ago. I mean, there is such available information and good information. I mean, there's a lot of things that, uh, we had to learn, just by
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:trial and error, right.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and mostly error. But
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Said, always the best, the most memorable lessons.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:well, I guess it teaches you when you get hit against the head with a two by four. It makes, makes a little
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Better impression?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:But,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I guess I think you gotta believe in the res resiliency of the industry and the resiliency of the people in it and, and the resiliency of people in agriculture to, uh, believe that, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna get back into production and we're going to get some wet years and we're gonna increase numbers, and maybe we don't want to increase'em as fast as we did last time. And
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:rates take care of that a little bit and some
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:True.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:But, um, there's enough people watching and, and you are throwing a huge, uh, financial incentive out there in front
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Oh my
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Boy,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:boy.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:we need every one of
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:One of those
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:And I
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I hear
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:about it, boy,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:boy hard.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:to lose a$2,500 calf. I mean,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah, yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:there's a
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Private city,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:to do some things out there.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:right? Yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:that
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:that was my biggest
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:uh, tool
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:selling bull city.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:was, know, this is no time to be a cheap skate in the cattle industry. I mean, you can
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Go out,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:spend a little money.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and get a little better, pregnancy rate conception and, and do things, uh, don't do things on the cheap, do things on trying to improve your production.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah, there's, there's never been a time that I've seen when you know, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound, a cure. I mean, you know, whether, whether it's genetics or nutrition or animal health or whatever else, I mean, you know, you, you can't be just nutso about it. But, that extra few pounds, that extra percentage of calf, crop, weaned per cow exposed, all these different things, my goodness, the ROI on that type of stuff today.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:incredible. It's incredible. Well, it's an exciting time and um, like you have said many a time, I mean, trying to. Uh, find out what those trends are is a lot more fun when you see those trends going up and to the right, or those graphs going up into the right. And we all know that it'll break at some point, but, um, you know, information like you've shared here and, and just anybody that wants to learn a little bit more about you and your family, um, go to Blair Brothers Angus website and stuff on social and I mean, there's your, your family's history and the way you've worked in the next generation and the changes you all have made and the diversity that you've got in your outlook. It's, it's impressive and it's been fun to watch from the sidelines and we appreciate you sharing a little bit of that secret sauce on here.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, and I think, you know, a key to a lot of it has just been, you know, watching markets and playing trends and,. Seeing where, you know, try studying history and studying but marketing's and, and by marketing I mean just, just whatever it takes to sell your product. And, and I mean, I'm not a good advertiser. I'm not, I'm not good at that. But, I do watch the cattle markets daily and, and project that and get involved in it. And, and I think just watching the futures market has done us a well of a benefit in cash marketing, you know, and, and knowing when to retain heifers and build cow numbers and, and. Doing that, I mean, to get prepared for these kinda markets. I mean, it was like my brother was telling the accountant the other day, we haven't sold any cows for three years and to thinking, yeah, how's, how come we got quite a few around? We haven't sold any. Well, I'm about two years too
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Too quick. And so
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:we had to hang on to them a little bit longer to get there this time. It's kind of fun to have him now.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:no doubt about it. You, you saw that trend coming and you stayed ahead of it. I guess, Are you selling yet or are you waiting another two years? If they'll last?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah, it's kind. It's like my son says I'm gonna do just what my daddy taught me. He said, I write it all the way up and I write it all the way back down. But no,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:No,
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:I, I mean,
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:I mean, you gotta sell some
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:stuff on this, on this market, there's no doubt about it. But, seems like you, everybody worried about how low it's gonna get and I think first off, we gotta
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Find out how high
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:gonna get?
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:because
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:where you kind of can figure out then where the low is. But, it's a great ride, but it's a scary ride because it, I was just thinking today about, you know, mad Cow was such a devastating event and you look back and, and we broke the February futures about$25 after Mad Cow.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:We have had like three$16 breaks and about four or five$10 breaks this year in the
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Hmm.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:futures.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Yeah.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:just, is, is pretty scary. But it's, I always remember, um, Bob Peterson, I think was, IBP said, you know, volatility is opportunity. And I've always tried to take that to heart that, um, volatility is a good thing, but, but you just gotta respect it and try to play it.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:And it's so difficult when we are clouded by our emotions or our fear of the unknown or whatever the case may be, to see those opportunities and actually figure out, okay, good, bad, or indifferent, what can I do to either limit my risk or capitalize on this opportunity, sell something, buy something, whatever the case may be. And I think cattlemen, me included, are probably as guilty as anybody of just grimacing and wanting to blame something on somebody instead of saying, Hey, I could price something off of this market, or I could buy something off of this market, or whatever the case may be in that opportunity, use that opportunity. And you know, the fact that you have mentioned in a favorable light, the futures in the Chicago Mercantile and Chicago Board of Trade and a packer and value-based marketing and you know, time with cattle fax and all these different things, I think proves to me how we as cattlemen can just as your former coworker, Randy Blach says that almost every opportunity stay plugged in and be paying attention to what's going on around us, and not just fearful of some other segment or some other sector or some other person that we were told is the enemy. And instead go, Hey, what is it they need? And how do I provide it? And how do I get paid to do it? And, and sometimes that means working with somebody besides just the same old, same old that we had been. But uh, yeah, we've, we've got to watch history, learn about the future, and figure out how to deal with the present.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:No, I agree with that and think that's right. And the other thing along with that is you you can't ever let'em get you in a corner where somebody else is making the decisions for you. And, and there was a joke, a fellow commodity guy said, said, uh, I don't know, one day the market was tough and this, were all feeling sad, and this guy walked in the door and old cattle, old cattleman said, said, what's the market doing today? And they told him, and he goes, well, at least they aren't making you sell'em cheap. And I about that a lot of times, getting into something. At least they're not making me sell'em cheap.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That's the irony of, of so many of these discussions that we have in our industry. Whether it be a discussion around, Captive supply or value-based marketing or agreements with this or that segment up or down the chain from you... a lot of times people say, well, you're selling out, you're selling out. You're, you're just doing it for somebody else. You're gonna be just like the hog industry. And my response is, this may be our only ticket. Figuring out these ways to produce what it is that they want, maybe sometimes having to do it on a contractual basis of some kind may be the only way that we keep the packer from owning everybody or everything like the hogs. Um, now, I don't know with land prices and everything else that that's ever gonna occur anyway, but, uh, yeah, a little, vision outside of our own pastures and our own fence lines and property boundaries is probably not a bad thing sometimes.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Matt, I'll tell you one thing in the, in this north country that, uh, you know, people are always scared. Oh, all the big corporations are gonna own the cows. And that, and, and I'll tell you when, when you get into a blizzard situation or you get tough weather, whatever. that take the big losses are the, are the big absentee landowners and, and that's just, you can't pay somebody enough to go work that hard when it needs to be. And I don't ever see that change in, I mean, I, I think you're gonna, you're gonna continue to have the owners there taking care of their livestock because they're the only guys that will work hard enough to get that done.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:That's blessing and a curse of these family ranches. But, uh, yeah, that's the truth. So, well, rich, thanks a bunch for being on here today and, uh, appreciate your insight and your time and, um, keep in touch and keep up the good work.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Well, thanks Matt. Thanks for the opportunity. I didn't know if I'd have anything to educate you or your listeners about, but I hopefully had one or two comments that maybe they could take and use, and that's the way we all learn, is we all learn from each other and we all learn by taking somebody
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:Else?
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:and running with them at times.
matt_2_09-02-2025_145227:No doubt. Well, I'd say there's been a lot more than just one or two, so thanks a bunch, rich.
squadcaster-h63b_2_09-02-2025_145227:Okay.
Thanks for tuning in to Practically Ranching, brought to you by Dalebanks Angus. If you like the show, share it with someone else. Give us a five star review and comment so we can keep cranking'em out. You know, rich just told me that a person ought to be selling into this market, so I'm taking him at his word. We have a nice set of 20 registered fall yearling heifers that'll be ready to breed in late November, December. Plus, for the first time in years, we'll sell a very elite group of six registered heifers after the bulls in our annual production sale. These are gonna be tough to part with, but they're gonna offer some incredible genetic opportunities to their new buyers. And of course, we'll be selling 150 yearling and coming 2-year-old bulls in our annual sale. So put it on your calendar Saturday, November 22nd, 2025, here at the Ranch Northwest of Eureka, Kansas. If you'd like to be added to our mailing list, uh, send us your name. And mailing address. We'll get you a newsletter in the mail and the catalog in late October, early November, so God bless you all. We'll talk again soon.
